Tajikistan is not a country that leaps to the front page of international newspapers often- it doesn't have embassies in many countries- of the present EU countries Tajikistan only maintains embassies in Belgium, Germany and Austria. Having said all of that the country lies in a vital strategic position, just north of Afghanistan and since 2001 Russian, French and American troops have been stationed there. Recently rumours have also suggested an Indian military presence might be deployed within Tajikistan with obvious consequences for the strategic balance within the Indian subcontinent. Tajikistan is part of a group of states stretching from Iran to China, in which states lie notable reserves of oil and also a combustible population of Muslims.

Its to this combustible population that the present laws apply and seek to appeal to. Tajikistan is majority Sunni Muslim with perhaps 15% of the population being Ismaili Shia Muslim- there are Sufi strains within its Sunni Islamic community but it has also been threatened by Al Qaeda. In 2002 the BBC reported that Al Qaeda fighters were seeking to flee northwards through Tajikistan out of Afghanistan. The radical Islamist party Hizb ut Tahrir has gained many supporters in both Uzbekistan and in Tajikistan. As Davron Vali wrote in 2002 there is plenty of evidence that Hizb are on the rise- and there is fertile ground for them to rise from- Vali estimated that around 1,500 Tajikistanis had been educated in extremist establishments around the world. In addition strict interpretation of Islamic law thrives in Tajikistan- the town of Chorkuh for example has adopted the Sharia completely- townspeople recently burned down the only place in Chorkuh that sold alcohol. The Tajikistani government has even been accused by its neighbours of allowing Islamic radicals to maintain bases upon its territory, though it denies the accusations.

So the government has need to be worried about the growth of radical Islam and the potential growth of radical Islam in the republic. Indeed given the warnings about a collapse of the NATO effort in Afghanistan what we are seeing at the moment may only be the beginnings of radical Islamic efforts within Tajikistan. Indeed Tajikistan itself has just emerged from a civil war- the mid nineties saw a battle between various factions within Tajikistan including political Muslims which ended with the Presidential election of 1999 in which Emomali Rakhmon was elected President for seven years almost unanimously, a term which was renewed in 2006. Rakhmon's government though obviously sees a need to do something about the religious identity of the country and so through successive drafts a law regulating religion within Tajikistan has been put together and looks like it will be passed.

The law creates two sets of restrictions- one which is obviously aimed at Islam and the others which are aimed at the minority religions- we shall come on to those later. The law deals with Islam in a particularly direct way. It would restrict mosque building- only one mosque would be allowed per 20,000 people in a rural area, per 30,000 in an urban area and per 80,000 in the capitol Dushanbe. Muslim groups are furious- Hikmotulla Sayfullozoda, head of the analytical center of Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan complained of the fact that there are not enough Mosques anyway in the capitol to accommodate believers. Reducing the number from 28 to 16 would increase the overcrowding problem. (There are different views as to the numbers involved- this source gives different figures- but the principle remains consistent- that the Tajikistani government plans to limit the number of mosques based on the population around them). This move must be designed by the government to both restrict the numbers of outlets for Muslims to pray in so that the security forces can keep a tight leash upon what is said. Further prohibitions on instructing children in Islam at home and on religious schooling, including a regulation that requires consent from every child over the age of seven to its own religious schooling are no doubt designed in the same spirit. Essentially the regime wants to cut off non-approved outlets of religious discussion and to regulate heavily those that it does approve.

That would have two consequences firstly and most obviously it might well enable the Government to close radical mosques and to shut down radical Islamic discourse. But also the Tajikistani government has found itself in the past opposed to Islamic political parties- some of whom took part within the civil war in the 1990s- which would mean that this might have a more domestic political dimension as well.

However the regime is also keen to display the fact that however harsh it is upon Islamic practise- its view of other religions is even harsher. The OECD concluded that the new Tajikistani law on religion contradicted many principles of international human rights agreements- including of course the freedom of religious association (PDF). And one can see why they would come to that view. The limitations on population around a religious centre don't apply just to mosques but to churches as well (article 15 interestingly uses the word church to describe these other establishments)- a church has to have a set number of people around it- obviously that means that missionary activity becomes very difficult, it also means that worship becomes very difficult. Many of Tajikistan's original Jewish and Christian populations fled during the civil war- leaving a remnant only behind- there are concerns that many Christians and Jews therefore because of their scarce numbers might be denied the opportunity to religiously associate. Organisations like the Mormons who have just begun to evangelise inside Tajikistan may well have problems registering as an official religion and hence being tolerated.

This anti-minority drive strikes me as an attempt by the government to link the state to the protection of Islam- in a way by withdrawing support from minority groups and religions through highly demanding tests to become legal- the state is fortifying its own Islamic reputation whilst also on the other side dealing with the Islamic militants- the two sides of the law thus are part of a double pronged attempt to draw back Tajikistan's Islamic population from revolt. My feeling would be that such laws in the end will not help the Tajikistani regime that much- because ultimately the pain for Muslims of losing mosques will be more significant than their joy at eliminating Christian and Jewish congregations. Tajikistan seems to be taking an incredibly retrograde step here- because its also creating the climate in which extremism most prospers- a climate without free speech in religious terms. The government may also be designing these measures to stop the Islamic opposition to it- again the measures are likely to be counterproductive- manufacturing martyrs and not allowing people to express political grievances.

This law therefore looks to be poorly drafted and a poor idea- and yet one can see how its double sided nature and reactionary impact might appeal to some of the other dictatorial regimes within the region- expect to see as the years pass if Islamic terror continues to be such a problem- further efforts by the oil rich republics of central Asia to control their population's religious enthusiasm- and expect to see those efforts in the long run fail.